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Tropics starting to heat up | CAT365

May 26, 2020 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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We have a few areas to watch this week for sure as the tropics seem to be heating up.


We have a new area that popped up over Florida yesterday bringing lots of rain and a little wind.  This area is expected to move into the Atlantic tomorrow, where it could try to develop quickly.  The NOAA gives it a 20% chance of development over the next five days, but I assume this will go up by tomorrow.

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We also have the potential to see another system try to develop in the Mid-Atlantic later this week.  Models do not develop it that much currently, but much can change as this is still a few days out.  I’m ssuming the NOAA will mark it this week with a small chance of development.

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We have a system in the Pacific that should be watched closely.  Why?  Well, this system has the potential to get pulled over into the Caribbean/Gulf, where it could build.  Some models forecast this happening, while others are not yet sold.  This is still a long ways out, and lots can and will change, but we should really keep a close eye on this one over the next 7 – 10 days.

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Here’s a great Ensemble map that shows the potential chances of development for all the areas noted above:genprob.aeperts.2020052606.altg.000_120 (1)