Bret In the House | CAT365

June 21, 2023 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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So we have TS Bret in the Atlantic.

As expected the yellow blob has tightened its game up and now is a decent TS for sure.

Winds 60mph and hauling it @ 17mph W.

Bret is expected to continue gaining strength as it pushes toward the Antilles over the next few days. The forecast even has Bret bulking up into a bonified hurricane by mid-week. But, if Bret dares to enter the Caribbean, he will be faced with some downright nasty conditions. Shear is expected to build in the Caribbean and will give Bret a go for his money for sure. Models were pretty optimistic with Bret building in the Caribbean yesterday and even felt that he would remain a hurricane, but now have backed off due to these expected winds. So now the forecast shows a weakening Bret once in the Caribbean (TS). Models support this weakening trend in the Caribbean also. Once in the Caribbean, Bret will be challenged for sure. There is even a possibility it could go poof. But if Bret holds it together, he could have a fighting chance if he tracks more NNW. All in all, Bret is gonna have to put on his big boy pants because it’s gonna be a downright ride for him on his current track.

Lots to watch with this one folks.

As for our expected Coattail rider? Well, it’s now Invest 93 and has an 80% chance. We could even see this one name up (Cindy) in the next few days in my opinion. But Cindy may watch the horror show of Bret’s Caribbean ride and say “Heck no” and pull NNW into the Atlantic.

Oh, and we could have yet another system spin up behind I93 that could also build and push west behind I93.

Stay tuned folks. Getting interesting for sure.

Seven-day graphical tropical weather outlook for Bret from the National Hurricane Center.