5-Day Tropical Outlook | July 7, 2022

Hard Reset 2.0 | CAT365

July 7, 2022 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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The beginning of July is usually a sleeper as it pertains to the tropics. So having a hard reset right now is not a shocker. But will it last? Hmmm?

I can tell you that models are not freaking out on anything currently. Most do agree on our Bermuda High taking over and swatting most action away in the Atlantic/Caribbean… BUT… we could see some lingering energy from a passing low dip into the Gulf next week. Models do support this passing low and show it trailing some energy behind that could get pinched off. Will this energy take a Gulf dip? Will there be any energy at all to take a dip? Questions Questions…. Never a sure thing, but we should keep an eye out over the next 7-10 days just to be safe.
GFS Model | July 7, 2022
As for the rest of the tropics, well our Monsoon Trough continues to push moisture along its conveyer belt, but big shear has been eating most of it up. Regardless, moisture is still making it’s way into the Caribbean (AKA Baby Maker) that always has a chance to build up. Remember June – July is homegrown system season, also known as Caribbean Creepers. So it will remain a hot spot to watch along with the Gulf through July. Stay tuned folks.

Monsoon Trough