So we are in a tropical pause currently, and models aren’t showing a lot of action in next the few days, but they have been sniffing out some potential as we head into next week.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are crazy hot, and with these hot waters comes lots of energy for systems to build on.
We could see a Low MDR rider (5-7 days) that could try to spin up as it pushes off the African coast. Models like this potential wave. Most even develop it by late next week. As for the track, it could push NNW close to the Antilles, so worth a watch for sure. In fact, this potential system could help fuel our second possibility.
The MJO shows tons of energy pushing into the Caribbean in the next 8-10 days, and the models are picking up on this also. The GFS and even the EURO are also signaling a potential Caribbean Creeper building around this time.
Again, these are far out but definitely worth looking out for folks, so we could have lots to watch over the next 7-10 days. Waters are steaming mad, folks.
Chad Trosper is the AVP of Catastrophe Claims at Tower Hill Insurance. He has over 19 years of experience in the claims industry and a true passion for weather. Chad graduated from the University of Florida with a degree in Business and Sociology and also holds a master’s certification in Business Process Management from the University of San Francisco. Chad currently resides in Gainesville, Florida, with his wife and three children.