Atlantic Winds | September 25, 2019

Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, and a Yellow Blob in the Gulf | CAT365

September 25, 2019 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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Jerry’s faded, Karen’s discombobulated, Lorenzo’s flexing, and Yellow Blob wants some Tex Mex.

5-Day Tropical Outlook | September 25, 2019, 8am ETTropical Depression Jerry looks to be on his last leg and should be gone by end of day.  So long J…

Jerry NHC Forecast Cone | September 25, 2019 8am AST

Hurricane Lorenzo, our fifth hurricane for 2019, is just blowing up (aka strengthening) and is expected to become the third major storm of 2019 by week’s end. I also believe that it’s the second hurricane to actually form this close to the African coastline. Regardless, thank goodness it’s a fish storm.

Lorenzo NHC Forecast Cone | September 25, 2019 5am AST

As for Tropical Storm Karen, she’s a complicated one. She’s not looking that organized this morning. Circulation has weakened on the east side wall, and all her storm activity is detached from her center and to the north, so she’s pretty lopsided currently. Karen is headed north at 14 mph with winds at 45 mph. The track is expected to continue north before stalling Friday, then could get pushed around & around & around before heading N, E, W, S, Up, Down?? Most models do agree on the loops and some weakening through early next week, but what happens from there is still a question.

Karen NHC Forecast Cone | September 25, 2019 5am AST
Karen ECMWF Ensemble | September 25, 2019
Karen Infrared Satellite | September 25, 2019

I do think that if she stalls and loops long enough, she could just catch the back end of the passing high and pull back out to sea. Could happen….

Much to watch with this one.