Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | July 21, 2021

New Area to Watch | CAT365

July 21, 2021 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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There could be a build up of energy off the East Coast over the next 5+ days.

NOAA has this area at a 0% chance of development over the next two days, but a 20% chance over the next five days.  Models agree on the longer timeline and show moisture building off the coast this weekend into early next week.

Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | July 21, 2021

From there, models show different scenarios of what this blob may do:

  1. Could get pushed over Florida and into the Gulf by early next week
  2. Could get push west inland and dissolve
  3. Could get pulled up and out to sea
  4. Or it could even split up.  Some out to sea and the other half pushes west

NCEP Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC genesis for forecasts during the 00-120h period from initial time = 2021072000

Still way too far out to predict much, but we should keep an eye on it regardless.