5-Day Tropical Outlook | September 26, 2019, 2am ET

Then there were 2, or should I say 1½? | CAT365

September 26, 2019 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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RIP Jerry and Yellow blob. You won’t be forgotten.

So now we are down to Karen and Lorenzo.

5-Day Tropical Outlook | September 26, 2019, 2am ET

Karen is trying to keep it together but is still disorganized. Winds dropped to 40 mph, and she’s heading more NNE at 15 mph. Models are really on board with Karen hitting the high, pushing west, and then dissolving before reaching the Bahamas. The  NHC has even now dropped the strength forecast to a tropical depression going into next week. We still need to watch, as things can change (As we witnessed with Jeanne in 2004).

Karen NHC Forecast Cone | September 26, 2019 5pm AST
Karen Infrared Satellite | September 26, 2019
Karen ECMWF Ensemble | September 26, 2019
Karen Spaghetti Models | September 26, 2019

Karen’s in an area with decent conditions right now, so strengthening is not out of the question, but her structure will need a lot of work first.

As for Lorenzo, well he’s flexing his muscles as our third major hurricane of the year. Winds are at 125 mph, but he’s heading out to sea. Go on with your bad self Lorenzo. Don’t look back my friend.

Lorenzo NHC Forecast Cone | September 26, 2019 11am AST

We should also watch the Gulf in the next 7 – 10 days, since there could be some moisture pulling up from the Caribbean into the midwestern Gulf.  Nothing official, but models seem to be sniffing something out.