Karen and Lorenzo | CAT365

September 27, 2019 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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Tropical Storm Karen’s desire to survive is intoxicating. She is basically a shell of a storm now, but she continues to fight.

5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | 27 September 2019

Karen’s winds are down to 45 mph this morning, heading northeast at 8 mph. From radar, it looks like she could be downgraded today if she doesn’t get it together. Models are more in line with Karen’s demise by early next week. Most kill her off well before reaching the Bahamas, and others don’t even see her making it out of her loop-t-loop. She’s still in some decent conditions for developing currently, but this window is closing fast.  So this is basically her last chance to survive the loop. If she develops and strengthens today before the stall, we could see a different forecast down the line. So it’s not over, yet I hate to say it.

Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Cone | 27 September 2019
Tropical Storm Karen GFS Ensemble | 27 September 2019
Tropical Storm Karen ECMWF Ensemble | 27 September 2019
Tropical Storm Karen GOES Infrared Satellite | 27 September 2019

Hurricane Lorenzo is just face slamming protein bars over there in the Atlantic. He’s still a major category 4 storm with winds now at 145 mph.  Lorenzo’s still expected to head out to sea, and we all welcome that idea.

Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Cone | 26 September 2019

We also need to watch the Caribbean and Gulf in the next 7-10 days. The MJO is picking up some moisture in this area, and models are starting to agree.  More to come.

Gulf Development Potential | 27 September 2019