NCEP Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC genesis | August 2, 2021

This Week | CAT365

August 2, 2021 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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August is the start of MDR season, and we could start to see some action this week.

Currently we don’t have anything showing on the NOAA site, but there is a lot of energy pushing off the African coast today, so I assume this could change.

Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | August 2, 2021

So what’s on the horizon?

#1:

  • We have some big systems rolling off the African coast today.
  • These storms have the potential to regroup and develop over the next few days.
  • Some models show decent strengthening through the week and a push westward.
  • Need to monitor closely

West African Coast Satellite Imagery | August 2, 2021

#2:

  • We also could see another set of storms roll off Africa later this week.
  • These could also have the potential to develop and push westward.
  • More to come

NCEP Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC genesis | August 2, 2021

So by this weekend, we could have at least two areas to watch over the next week or so.

Stay tuned.