Tropical Disturbances | August 14, 2023

Two Waves To Watch

August 14, 2023 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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Well, we had a long break without a single blob in the tropics, but now we have two to start off the week.

These both have a 20%-30% chance of developing over the next five days. Most modeling agrees on gradual development and a westward(ish) track for both.

Tropical Disturbances | August 14, 2023

The wave expected off Africa this week has the best chance currently of developing first. Models show this rolling off mid-week and spinning up. Most tracks take this on on a more NNW route, but some models push it down some, allowing it to get closer to the states before pulling up. Definitely a watcher as this has not even dipped its toes in yet, so it’s hard to pinpoint.

The other wave will be a tricky one. Models show this taking a Caribbean track vs. pulling up. They also support development down the line. If this pushes into the Caribbean, it could generate some moisture to build into the Gulf. It could also get some of this energy to build on for a potential Gulf appearance.

Models show a lot of tropical juice entering the Gulf days +10, so I think we may be watching the Gulf this time next week.

Tropical Disturbances - Anticipated Tracks | August 14, 2023

Lots of time and lots can change. Stay tuned.