Well, we had a long break without a single blob in the tropics, but now we have two to start off the week.
These both have a 20%-30% chance of developing over the next five days. Most modeling agrees on gradual development and a westward(ish) track for both.
The wave expected off Africa this week has the best chance currently of developing first. Models show this rolling off mid-week and spinning up. Most tracks take this on on a more NNW route, but some models push it down some, allowing it to get closer to the states before pulling up. Definitely a watcher as this has not even dipped its toes in yet, so it’s hard to pinpoint.
The other wave will be a tricky one. Models show this taking a Caribbean track vs. pulling up. They also support development down the line. If this pushes into the Caribbean, it could generate some moisture to build into the Gulf. It could also get some of this energy to build on for a potential Gulf appearance.
Models show a lot of tropical juice entering the Gulf days +10, so I think we may be watching the Gulf this time next week.
Lots of time and lots can change. Stay tuned.
Chad Trosper is the AVP of Catastrophe Claims at Tower Hill Insurance. He has over 19 years of experience in the claims industry and a true passion for weather. Chad graduated from the University of Florida with a degree in Business and Sociology and also holds a master’s certification in Business Process Management from the University of San Francisco. Chad currently resides in Gainesville, Florida, with his wife and three children.