NCEP Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC genesis for forecasts during the 120-240h period from initial time = 2021061000

All clear in the Caribbean? Not so fast. | CAT365

June 10, 2021 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

Share this Post

If you looked at the latest NOAA, then you may have noticed that our Yellow Blob in the Caribbean is no more.

Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | June 10, 2021

So are we in the clear?  Well not so fast.  The blob may be gone, but the energy is still there.  It’s just headed for a new location (Energy Transformation 101 my dear).  So where is it headed?  It looks like we could see it try to regroup in the Bay of Campeche.  Yup, we could have a Gyre form in the Bay that would help develop any energy around it, and that’s what models are betting on in the next 7-8 days.

NCEP Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC genesis for forecasts during the 120-240h period from initial time = 2021061000

So here is what we think based on modeling.  All tentative of course:

  • Energy building in the Bay of Campeche next week (Day +7)
  • Potential development and push out into the Gulf (Day +9)
  • Potential WNW track along TX-LA (Day +10)
  • Strengthening expected (though we may see heavier shear and dry air push in)