Jerry Wind Pattern | September 18, 2019

As one hurricane heads out, another storm is born, then another and another | CAT365

September 18, 2019 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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Humberto skirts Bermuda, and a host of systems show signs of life in the Gulf and the Atlantic.

The Gulf wave headed towards Texas was named yesterday, and that name was Imelda (aka Warrior Woman). It was short lived though, as it was named less than one mile from landfall and is now a tropical depression over Texas – kind of anticlimactic given such a powerful name.

Imelda Infrared Satellite | September 18, 2019
Imelda Forecast Cone | September 18, 2019, 10pm CT

So that leaves us with our Atlantic system, which is supposed to strengthen and become a decent hurricane this week. This one gets the name Jerry… yup, Jerry.  The name Jerry is a feminine version of Gerald, which means ruler with a spear, so still kinda cool. Regardless, Tropical Storm Jerry is strengthening, and circulation is trying to tighten up (winds at 45mph — headed WNW at 13 mph). Jerry will have some shear to face in the next few days, so strengthening during this time could be limited.  Jerry is still expected to make that curve out by this weekend, and models agree, but we still need to watch him closely.

Jerry Forecast Cone | September 18, 2019, 5AM AST
Jerry Infrared Satellite | September 18, 2019
Jerry ECMWF Ensemble | September 18, 2019

We also have two new yellow blobs with a 20 percent chance of development. Modeling is not excited about them currently, but conditions are there, so worth watching.

5-Day Tropical Outlook | September 18, 2019, 8am ET

5-Day Tropical Outlook | September 18, 2019, 8am ET

Oh, and that wave expected off the African coast late next week? Well, it’s still getting attention from models,… so I imagine we’ll be watching the MDR again this time next week.