And then there were four | CAT365

September 20, 2019 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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Hurricane Jerry is our fourth hurricane of the season and is currently a Category Two storm with winds at 100 mph and heading WNW at 16 mph.

Crazy how Jerry intensified with so much shear and dry air around it. Imagine what it could’ve been without these limiters. Yikes…. It still has a lot of shear ahead of it, so I’m assuming that’s why they don’t predict J becoming a major down the line.  It’s still expected to take that curve this weekend out to sea. Another bullet dodged??

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Cone | 20 September 2019
ECMWF Ensemble | 20 September 2019
Tropical Cyclone Formation Conditions | 20 September 2019
GOES 16 IR | 20 September 2019

Our two yellow blobs are not impressing the models, so their five day development chances remain low. However, we should watch closely if they drift into the Caribbean, IMO.

5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | 20 September 2019
Africa Infrared Satellite | 20 September 2019

And finally we have our red landing pad for the wave I’ve been mentioning coming off the African coast next week. Models love this wave and develop it quickly. The silver lining currently is that Jerry should help pull it north. “Should”.

Lots to watch.