Invest 95 Possibilities

I95 strengthens | CAT365

September 12, 2019 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

Share this Post

I’ve been in the CAT game for a while now, and this is the first time I’ve seen models this far off from each other within the three-day window.

Invest 95 Possibilities

Invest 95 is strengthening and is now up to an 80% chance of development. It could become a named storm soon if it keeps it up.

  • The GFS and NAVGEM have I95 crossing Florida this weekend, hitting the Gulf, and strengthening some as it heads towards Louisiana/Mississippi.I95 GFS Model | September 15, 2019
  • The Euro and CMC have I95 skirting the Florida East Coast, strengthening a lot, and curving out towards the Carolinas next week.I95 Euro Model | September 15, 2019

Most of the models do agree on I95 strengthening, but it’s crazy how they don’t agree on which body of water it will end up.

Steering winds favor the Gulf track currently, but a high is expected to weaken and drift eastward, which is what the EURO may be picking up on.

Atlantic Steering Winds | September 12, 2019

Regardless, we could see I95 strengthen into something decent these next few days, so be sure to watch it closely.

As for I94, it faded, leaving that moisture we discussed for the New Kid trailing behind, but models now trying to pull the New Kid northward well before the Antilles and out into the Atlantic. This is a new run for them, but very possible if there is a break in the blocking high.  This would be a win for sure.

5-Day Tropical Outlook | September 12, 2019, 8am ET

So, models are just a little wacky today, but hopefully they’ll get their circuits together shortly.