We have Invest 95 just off the coast of Africa.
![ECMWF Ensemble, 2021062406, AL95 Invest](https://www.thig.com/assets/uploads/AL95_2021062406_ECENS.png)
A group of storms rolled off the African coast earlier this morning and already have a 40% chance of developing in the next five days.
Models continue to favor development over the next 5-7 days as it tracks WNW toward the Antilles. We could even see a named storm form as early as this weekend based on some modeling.
With that said, once it nears the Antilles, conditions are expected to worsen, and models show a weakening system before making it to the Caribbean.
This one could be a distance runner folks. Make sure you keep an eye on it. Will it go the distance? Hopefully not, and most models agree for now. Fingers crossed.
![](https://www.thig.com/assets/uploads/Chad-Trosper-1.jpg)
Chad Trosper is the AVP of Catastrophe Claims at Tower Hill Insurance. He has over 19 years of experience in the claims industry and a true passion for weather. Chad graduated from the University of Florida with a degree in Business and Sociology and also holds a master’s certification in Business Process Management from the University of San Francisco. Chad currently resides in Gainesville, Florida, with his wife and three children.