Dry air and SDR around Invest 96L yesterday

Invest 96L down to a 50% chance of development | CAT365

August 2, 2019 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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Dry air and SDR (Saharan Dust Layer) took their toll on poor old 96 yesterday and weakened it quite a bit.

Models are now pretty consistent on limited development through the middle of next week as Invest 96 nears the Bahamas and curves NNW by next weekend. There’s a lot of shear ahead of the system as it starts to pull more north in the coming days, so further development should be limited if the shear remains strong.

With that said, we could still see Chantal form if I96 holds it together through next week and hits more favorable conditions as it nears the northeast coast, though the odds of this happening are not strong currently.

Right now, it’s not looking good for 96, but I wouldn’t count her out just yet.

We also have 96’s baby brother following behind her that’s worth a watch. Heck, 96 could be just clearing the way for little bro to come through, though models currently don’t see this happening either.

All in all, the current outlook looks slim for 96 (and her little brother).

You can see the dry air / SDR around 96 yesterday as it made its way westward….

Dry air and SDR around Invest 96L yesterday

Here’s a current radar shot of 96 and the Lil brother following along….

Invest 96L and its Little Brother

Here’s to clear skies and calm seas this time next week.