First off, it seems that old 99 did not eat its Wheaties and fell out well before landfall along the TX/MX border.
It just did not have the time or space to get going.
Next.
So we do have two areas along the MDR that we spoke about in the last post. Both of these yellow blobs have a low chance currently, but models indicate that this could change as we get further in. So let’s review what we have.
1. Our lead blob has a 20% chance currently. Not looking all that dapper on radar, but there is rotation, so it was deemed Invest 90L. Models of course have been yes, no, yes, wait.., no, well maybe on this one for the past few days. For now it looks like 90L will continue west and could build some as it nears the Antilles. From there most have it fall out, but some have it join forces with some Caribbean juice E of Bahamas that could help it get it’s groove back close to FL/East coast. For now, we watch and wait.
2. Our trailing blob has a 10% currently. Models show this one actually getting it’s stuff together by the weekend and could tighten up some. Still too far out to tell, but most have faith in this blob doing something with it’s life. The track forecasted closely mirrors 90L. The positive for this guy or gal is that 90 could help pave its way, so stay tuned.
3. There’s an Upper Level Low (ULL) east of Bahamas that has some juice, but models not interested. Watching.
Finally, we could see a third roll-off that has potential early next week, so be on the lookout for this one. And our Gulf potential for late this weekend is there but way less attention from models now.
For now, we do what we’ve been doing and continue wondering just what “SHE”nanigans Mother Nature has up her sleeve.
Stay tuned.
Chad Trosper is the AVP of Catastrophe Claims at Tower Hill Insurance. He has over 19 years of experience in the claims industry and a true passion for weather. Chad graduated from the University of Florida with a degree in Business and Sociology and also holds a master’s certification in Business Process Management from the University of San Francisco. Chad currently resides in Gainesville, Florida, with his wife and three children.