NOAA GOES-East Satellite | July 21, 2020

Tropics taking on a whole new tone this week | CAT365

July 21, 2020 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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Two systems show potential for development over the next few days.

Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | July 21, 2020
Gulf system: 

  1. Currently located between Cuba and Florida
  2. Up to a 40% chance of development over the next five days
  3. Models still not developing it much, but ensembles are hinting at possible strengthening closer to the coast.
  4. Timeline is still Friday/Saturday
  5. Most modeling has it headed towards mid-Texas, but based on current upper winds, we could see a shift more NNW in track, placing it more towards Louisiana/Texas border.
  6. Need to watch as a slow in speed could shift track and allow for further strengthening.
  7. Tropical depression/tropical storm development is possible.

NOAA GOES-East Satellite | July 21, 2020


  1. Up to a 60% chance of development over the next five days
  2. Headed towards the Lesser Antilles
  3. Once past the islands, most models have it falling apart as it drifts further into the Caribbean.
  4. I99 has a decent circulation and seems to be strengthening currently.
  5. Possible tropical depression formation is there prior to reaching the Antilles.
  6. We will have a better idea of I99’s plan once past the Antilles in the next 5 – 6 days.
GOES-16 Channel 13 (IR) Brightness Temperature | July 21, 2020
Invest 99L GEFS Tracks & Min. MSLP (mb)

We’re also watching the possibility of a wave coming off the African coast late this weekend into early next week.  This one, if it happens, could be a distance runner that would require attention.

Nothing official, just a heads up.