Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | August 17, 2020, 2:00pm ET

Two new waves in the Atlantic that need to be watched closely | CAT365

August 17, 2020 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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Given the waves’ placement and current track, we could see two systems in the Caribbean/Gulf by this weekend.

  • We have two waves along the Main Development Region that need to be monitored closely.
  • The first wave has been upgraded to Invest 97 and has a 50% chance of development.
  • The second wave should be upgraded soon and has a 60% chance of development.
  • Both waves are low riders and have the potential to travel further west into the Caribbean towards the Gulf.
  • Models are still back and forth on track since we are still >5 days out, but most track one or both into the Caribbean/Gulf vs pulling northward as we have seen with past systems.
  • Given the waves’ placement and current track, we have the potential to see 2 possible systems in the Caribbean/Gulf by this weekend.
  • These systems will be entering the Caribbean/Gulf around the same time as our MJO wave is expected. This could easily fuel these systems.
Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | August 17, 2020, 2:00pm ET
NCEP Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC genesis | August 17, 2020

We ‘ll need to keep a close eye on both of these waves over the next 5-8 days.  Lots to watch.