Heads Up | CAT365

November 6, 2022 | Chad Trosper, BPMP

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Alright. Now we are at a 90% chance for our Cross Hook Bahama Momma.

Nicole would be the next named storm (sounds like someone that would order a Bahama Momma) — if it beats out our other Fish Storm at 70%. If not, then Owen.

5- Day Tropical Outlook | November 6, 2022

Most models are pretty in line with a potential track for this 50 shades of storm, but they don’t agree on strength for sure. So let’s break it out on where we are for now.

GFS & ICON like a tropical system into South Florida as a decent system (Strong TS – CAT 1). These models keep the center tighter and wind more around the circulation (aka tropical).

EURO – Agrees with the track of the G & ICON, but not on strength/formation. EURO likes a more sub-tropical look with winds outside the center and less organized/strong. This model keeps it more on the lower TS/TD end, but gusty winds across most of Florida.

CMC/NAV – Agree with the G/ICON on strength and tropical look, but push it more north towards the Florida/Georgia (NAV more towards Georgia/South Carolina) coastlines.

With all that said, ensembles do agree on a more South Florida track and then a Florida – Georgia – North Carolina track, but a less intense system for now.

Basically, it’s still a blob and much will change, so stay tuned folks.