Alright. Now we are at a 90% chance for our Cross Hook Bahama Momma.
![](https://www.thig.com/assets/uploads/storm.jpg)
Nicole would be the next named storm (sounds like someone that would order a Bahama Momma) — if it beats out our other Fish Storm at 70%. If not, then Owen.
Most models are pretty in line with a potential track for this 50 shades of storm, but they don’t agree on strength for sure. So let’s break it out on where we are for now.
GFS & ICON like a tropical system into South Florida as a decent system (Strong TS – CAT 1). These models keep the center tighter and wind more around the circulation (aka tropical).
EURO – Agrees with the track of the G & ICON, but not on strength/formation. EURO likes a more sub-tropical look with winds outside the center and less organized/strong. This model keeps it more on the lower TS/TD end, but gusty winds across most of Florida.
CMC/NAV – Agree with the G/ICON on strength and tropical look, but push it more north towards the Florida/Georgia (NAV more towards Georgia/South Carolina) coastlines.
With all that said, ensembles do agree on a more South Florida track and then a Florida – Georgia – North Carolina track, but a less intense system for now.
Basically, it’s still a blob and much will change, so stay tuned folks.
![](https://www.thig.com/assets/uploads/Chad-Trosper-1.jpg)
Chad Trosper is the AVP of Catastrophe Claims at Tower Hill Insurance. He has over 19 years of experience in the claims industry and a true passion for weather. Chad graduated from the University of Florida with a degree in Business and Sociology and also holds a master’s certification in Business Process Management from the University of San Francisco. Chad currently resides in Gainesville, Florida, with his wife and three children.